AGAG wrote:
... and do we know why this started?
There are probably several reasons- regardless of who is in power, the Kremlin has traditionally reserved the right to interfere with its neighbors over the centuries, and the list is rather long- Poland (whom the Kremlin threatened to
nuke just last week in a dispute over radar sites being setup by the US), Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Afghanistan, Georgia, Romania, Hungary, and others at one time or another.
This incursion into Georgia is only the latest of Moscow's adventures, although I do suspect that the reasoning behind this is at least twofold-
One, to let Tbilisi know who is boss, and that antagonizing the Kremlin will not be tolerated. These antagonisms included the conflicts with ethnic Russians in breakaway provinces such as South Ossetia, as well as what the Kremlin considers as Georgia getting a bit too close in its relationship with Washington- i.e., proposed NATO membership (which certainly had to have infuriated both Putin as well as Ivanov), in addition to Georgia sending such troops to Iraq.
(One thing is for sure, if Georgia currently was a NATO member, that it is far less likely that Russian troops would currently be on their soil.)
Two, and I think that this is the
primary reason, believe it or not; to take attention and heat off of Iran for the time being, and to distract the West by focusing on Georgia. Obviously, this ruse did not play out as well as Putin or Ivanov had hoped, as Bush has just dispatched an additional pair of carrier battle groups to the Persian Gulf region.
Moscow has some rather large financial investments tied up in the Bushrer nuclear facilities in Iran, and not to mention that $750 million worth of new SAM (Surface to Air Missile) network that both Iran and Russia are working feverishly to light up (bring online) as soon as possible. It's highly unlikely that Israel can afford to wait for that to happen, as it would raise the risk/loss factors of military air strikes on Bushrer to unacceptable levels- something that Jerusalem can ill afford at the present time, as it is likely that these Qty. (90) new F-16/i series jets that they have just purchased will also be needed to deal with the political, as well as military fallout from just such an attack on Iran.
Deputy Israeli P.M. (and former defense minister) Shaul Mofaz (who is, by descent and by birth, ironically, a Persian born Jew) has stated quite clearly that Israel will not permit a second Holocaust to happen. Former and possible future P.M. Bibi Netanhayhu himself has echoed those sentiments.
So it is very, very likely that the sideshow in South Ossetia will soon give way to the main event at Bushrer.